About the pathway data

Intensity Calculations

Intensity indicators (e.g., emission intensity, energy intensity) are derived from primary indicators provided by the original pathways. While foundational indicators are calibrated against historical data, users should note that numerator and denominator activity records often originate from different data sources, and some quantities carry wide historical uncertainties. These methodological differences and data variability may produce occasional variations in historic intensity values. We maintain transparency about these limitations to support informed interpretation. Underlying primary indicators are available in the "Key Assumptions" panels and Data Explorer.

Pathway Objectives

The Systemic Climate Pathways based on Integrated Assessment Models are developed to answer specific, often divergent, research questions, typically emerging from model comparison studies involving multiple Integrated Assessment Models. Because these pathways address distinct research objectives, their settings and outcomes reflect different trajectories for the target-setting indicators provided in this Navigator.

Many pathways adopt a globally cost-optimal approach to mitigation, prioritizing efficiency without explicitly incorporating equity considerations across countries and regions. These illustrate where mitigation actions are most cost-effective from a global perspective, though realizing them equitably would require international climate financing.

Several key global scenario studies in the ensemble focus on specific topics:

Regional Definitions and Coverage

Regional definitions vary across all pathways from differens source. While Systemic Climate Pathways from Integrated Assessment Models aim for global comprehensiveness, most sectoral products cover only select jurisdictions (e.g. G20 countries or World). This results in a patchwork of regional definitions and coverage across the Navigator. Systenmic Climate Pathways are available at a comparable level of 10 IPCC macro-regions (IPCC AR6 WGIII Annex II) and at the native resolutions of each model. Sectoral decarbonization pathways are provided at the resolutions specified in each product, varying by sector.

Emission Scopes

The Navigator distinguishes between:

Emissions are reported for CO₂ alone or for all greenhouse gases (Kyoto gases: CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, SF₆). Sectoral Decarbonization Pathways cover different scopes and gas combinations. For Systemic Climate Pathways, we have calculated multiple scope variations where underlying data permitted.

Pathway Validation

Scenarios Compass validates climate pathways against recent observations (emissions, energy use, land use) through 2025. Many IPCC AR6 pathways did not pass validation for the Scenarios Compass, primarily due to assumptions about faster policy implementation than observed. Further information at: www.scenarioscompass.org and doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8891091/v1

Additional data availability

More granular data for Sectoral Decarbonization Pathways are available in original sources. CRREM building sector pathways contain additional country-level detail. IEA offers more detailed sectoral data (commercially licensed). Systemic Climate Pathways from Scenarios Compass and IPCC AR6 have additional variables in original databases.

Sectoral Decarbonization Pathways

The following Sectoral Decarbonization Pathways are included in the Navigator. Please use the citations below when referencing these datasets.

References